A slow moving low pressure system changed up the weather/mindset (weather has a strong influence on my mindset) this week, bringing cool wind and fog in its approach, then clouds and light rain (maybe 1/20″ aka just enough to warrant putting all the tools away inches of rain). While it was a wet paper tiger compared to winter beasts that roll through, it was a good winter mindset simulator and reminder that its time to start thinking about the next season (summer here basically goes till at least Thanksgiving, so I omit “fall” but don’t get me started on the mini-seasons here-sometimes the only thing seasonal is the daylength!)

At the same time, the new monthly El Nino forecast from NOAA came out yesterday. Here are a couple highlights:

“There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016.”

“Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with many multi-model averages predicting a strong event at its peak strength”

“In many respects, the atmospheric anomalies remained firmly coupled to the oceanic warming”

The last part contrasts with last year where we had warmer oceans but wasn’t shown in the atmosphere. So things are looking good…

So this is the time to start brainstorming projects and solutions to be ready!